We are really in unprecedented territory right now, and its not even close, Meyer said. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. Its lagging in both the Upper and Lower basins, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration projects much of the watershed totilt toward hotter and drier weatherfor the rest of the winter. And by themselves they are no longer sufficient to meet the area needs. He spent two years at Aspen Public Radio, mainly reporting on the resort economy, the environment and the COVID-19 pandemic. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. The new studys analysis is consistent with the studies and analyses CAP has been doing and is part of the reason its been focusing on trying to protect Lake Mead, Cullom said. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. Back-to-back dry years years with below-average runoff have left little water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, a reservoir upstream. First of all Lake Powell is not gonna dry up. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. 2020. This cookie is set by the provider Akamai Bot Manager. This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. The story has been updated to reflect this information. So the upper watershed, you have the headwater states. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of last week, and had lost 16 feet in the last year. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing. It's been a vital force for the intermountain West because of its ability to. This is prompting a lot of people to ask whats going to happen next. Lake Mead is the nation's largest reservoir, a companion to Lake Powell. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. Why is Lake Mead drying up? Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, Latest climate change news from USA TODAY, Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. The Department of the Interior had asked the seven states of the Colorado River Compact to come up with a plan to cut between 2 and 4 million acre-feet of water by January. Riparian rights do not entitle a water use to divert water to storage in a reservoir for use in the dry season or to use water on . That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. Last week, the lake reached a disturbing new. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. A years worth of rain and snow is missing from Utahs ground. Before that, he covered the worlds largest sockeye salmon fishery for KDLG in Dillingham, Alaska. In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. Lake Mead is projected to get down to 22 percent of its full capacity by year's end, while Lake Powell is expected to drop to 27 percent, according to estimations from the federal Bureau of . It also helps in fraud preventions. This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. On top of the hydropower the lake generates, its the source of drinking water for the 7,500 residents of Page, Az., and the 1,443 members of the LeChee chapter of the Navajo Nation. They both use water from the Colorado River. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? The water in Lake Mead on Wednesday reached a new low 1070.6 feet above sea level since it was filled in the 1930's, according to data provided by the US Bureau of Reclamation. On the contrary, he said, its actually become this locus of huge uncertainty, which doesnt allow downstream users to make effective plans, because they dont know what their allocations are going to be. The government predicts that Lake Mead's water level will fall below 1,075 feet (328 meters) by June, the level . We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. BACKGROUND: Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. Lake Mead and Lake Powell rise and fall together, said Chuck Cullom, the Central Arizona Projects Colorado River programs manager. She said the very fact that officials in Washington, D.C. are getting involved underscores the urgency of Lake Powells crisis. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. Lake Powell is rapidly drying up as a result of the scorching megadrought in the Western U.S., and may completely disappear in just decades. Experts say it wont be a silver bullet, but could stave off near-term danger. The Glen Canyon Dam forms Lake Powell and the Hoover Dam forms Lake Mead. At 3,490 feet, Glen Canyon Dam reaches "minimum power pool." Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. In case of a drought like that of 2000-2005, Lake Mead would get 7.48 million acre-feet, worsening the structural deficit that is already causing Mead to drop by up to 12 feet a year due to the Lower Basin states chronic overuse of river water compared to supply. This segment is part ofThe State of Science, a series featuring science stories from public radio stations across the United States. She compares the current drought conditions to 2018, another record-breaking hot and dry year just a couple years ago. Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . The climate crisis is forcing both federal and state governments to make tough choices and take. The low levels arent just causing hand-wringing among the Wests water officials. It does not store any personal data. Nearly all of Utah, New Mexico, . Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. A subscription helps you access more of the local stories that keep you connected to the community. This is very unpredictable and these are going to be difficult conversations in the coming years.. And thats because some of these past agreements have put that state in the most vulnerable position for cutbacks. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. It is not creating certainty in the water market, Mankin said. What to know about the West's ongoing water crisis: Lake Powell is the nation's second-largestreservoir. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. It survives, she said. The year as I write is now 2018. As part of 2019s Drought Contingency Plan, water managers agreed that the reservoirs water should be kept above 3,525 feet to provide a buffer before it got even lower, giving the agencies in charge some time to come up with a fix. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. It doesn't strain the mind to imagine us losing power within a year. After more than 22 years of drought compounded by warmer temperatures with climate change, Lake Mead and Lake Powell have declined to their lowest levels since they were filled. But if the regions dry period repeats itself, he said, youll need fundamental change. His uncle, Stewart Udall, voted to create Lake Powell as an Arizona congressman in 1956 and shepherded construction of the Glen Canyon Dam that holds back the lake while he was interior secretary in the early 1960s. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Lake Powell is hemmed by the Glen Canyon Dam, which generates hydroelectric power via the dam's water flowing through the dam back into the Colorado River. LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Climate scientists call it D4. Meanwhile, Lake Powells projected decline in 2021 recently triggered the Upper Basin plan to be used for the first time. And it's not a backroom voodoo mystery that only fortune tellers can forecast. LUKE RUNYON: So seven US states make up the Colorado River basin. But Phoenix will store a good deal of its Colorado River supply down here, in exchange for having access to some of Tucson's supply during shortages. If decision makers do nothing and take no action and just let the reservoir crash without structurally modifying the dam, there will be a lot of really big problems.. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. They've been ignoring the problem coming for decades and decades. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. What happens if Lake Powell runs out of water? Shes a big fan of stories related to strange animal facts and dystopian technology. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. 1. Are experts looking at this saying, its just going to get worse in the Colorado River basin? These ICS uses, at the high end, amount to two and a half feet of elevation in Lake Mead. "Climate change makes these extreme weather events both more frequent and more severe, '' Matthew Casale, Environment Campaigns Director at non-profit advocacy group PIRG, previously told Newsweek. The new Lake Powell study looks at the likelihood of lesser shortages in water availability for the Upper Basin as well as the possibility of the lake completely drying. . In the long term, probably not. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. Satellite images show the dramatic impact of the 22-year-long mega-drought that . So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. Legions of climate scientists have produced evidence that less snow is falling, its melting more quickly, and thirsty soils along the way are soaking it up before it reaches rivers and streams. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. In coming years, it's going to get worse and worse and worse.. Drought contingency plans for the Upper and Lower Basin are now in use. A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. The study is aimed, in part, at trying to help guide efforts at devising a contingency plan, to keep things from getting out of hand, Kuhn said. LUKE RUNYON: So in the Colorado River basin, a lot of the management of the river is tied to the level of its two largest reservoirs. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. At 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits. People should definitely not feel like the agencies managing the Colorado River have it under control, he said. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. Lake Mead's decline is not happening in isolation, but is the result of a two-decade drought hitting the western U.S. and causing critical water shortages on the Colorado River. How they disrupt our daily life, fuel disasters. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. Forecasts dont paint a pretty picture for snowpack either. But while Lake Mead . Water levels have been getting lower and lower, and for the first time ever, a shortage seems almost certain. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. University of California professor Jay Lund previously told Newsweek that the cuts already implemented aren't enough, and in order to give the reservoirs ample time to recover through rain and snowpack melt, people will need to reduce their consumption even more. AWSALB is an application load balancer cookie set by Amazon Web Services to map the session to the target. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. The study was financed by the district, which is based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, along with the Southwestern Water Conservation District in Durango, and four water groups in Western Colorado that represent various interests. The regions been looking warily at the reservoirs along this long river that winds its way from Colorados Rocky Mountains all the way to Mexico, just shy of the Gulf of California. . Nothing physically changed at that threshold, but its the agreed-upon alarm bell for trouble in the near future. "That means that due to climate change, it is more likely that we will see [more] extreme heat waves". Dead pool is 3,370 feet. Skip Navigation. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . what little rain and snow has fallen dries . Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. Lake Powell, the country's second-largest reservoir and a key source of water and power for much of the West, is more parched than ever.Earlier this month, the lake dropped below 25% capacity . Stretching for 186 miles along the border of Utah and Arizona, Lake Powell serves as one of two major reservoirs that anchor the Colorado River. Weve seen records set when it comes to dwindling soil moisture. If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. The studys computer models didnt factor in rising temperatures expected in this region due to climate change. Lake Oroville, a key component of California's water supply, also benefited from the early-winter storms, as . Youre hearing a lot more now, especially because the interior secretary, Deb Haaland, is herself a member of a Native American tribe and has put a lot of emphasis on bringing tribes to the table, making tribal consultation a big part of the Biden administrations priorities. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, is about 30% full and dropping, a water level not seen since the reservoir was first filled when the Glen Canyon Dam blocked up the Colorado . The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. This cookie is used to detect and defend when a client attempt to replay a cookie.This cookie manages the interaction with online bots and takes the appropriate actions. Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. Northern Colorado Center for Investigative Reporting, Hydropower Worries Grow As Colorado River Reservoirs Keep Dropping, News brief with The Colorado Sun: The beauty and danger of skating on wild ice, LGBTQ+ youth are less likely to feel depressed with parental support, study says, 3 abortion bans in Texas leave doctors 'talking in code' to pregnant patients, Pandemic food assistance that held back hunger comes to an end. Science Friday is produced by the Science Friday Initiative, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Powell is not drying out in a vacuum.. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. Kathleen Davis is a producer at Science Friday, which means she spends the week brainstorming, researching, and writing, typically in that order. "The federal government generally prefers to let the stakeholders work things through, Sorensen said. You have permission to edit this article. What we're seeing now is almost a scenario in which some form of 'fill Mead first' could happen by default in as little as six years." Between the drought years of 2000-2005, Lake Powell lost 13 . "That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.". In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. Page mayor: Lake Powell is not drying up. And youre able to say, oh, the rivers high, or the river is low. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. More. If its done intentionally, the drawbacks of losing the reservoir could be minimized and the benefits could be maximized, Balken told The Hill. Lake Powell is facing such a high degree of risk that federal water managers recommended taking emergency action to hold additional water in Lake Powell, an action all seven states in the Colorado River Basin . Keep reading with a digital access subscription. A pair of before and after photos at Lake Powell . Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. Climate change is driving more than two decades of drought across the region, and making it increasingly unlikely that Lake Powell will ever climb back to previous levels. Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. Is this as bad as climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters? This cookie is used to manage the interaction with the online bots. Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. Balken surmises the jugs were tied to the trees back when Lake Powell just covered their upper branches to warn boaters of the hazard beneath the surface. The idea that these smaller upstream reservoirs can continue to compensate Powells losses, thats not the case, he said. In the short term, yes. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The water levels behind the Colorado Rivers biggest dams are fast-approaching or already at record lows. Theyre roughly 25% full now, saidBrad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. For context, on the scale of no drought to worst drought, theres no category that captures conditions more dry than exceptional. At the time of publication, Lake Powell was sitting at only 3,529 feet only four feet above this important threshold. And data updated Monday from the California Department of Water Resources' tracker show the reservoir climbing to 60%, still below historical levels for February 72% but significantly higher than it had been. JOHN DANKOSKY: So obviously, people are preparing for worse times. This drought will only be exacerbated by climate change, as the increased global temperatures are expected to increase the severity of drought weather and frequencies of wildfires, as well as influencing a vast range of other extreme weather events. I'm not sure a lot of Las Vega. A load balancing cookie set to ensure requests by a client are sent to the same origin server. In addition, Mankin said, interventions like the Flaming Gorge release treat the western U.S.s 20-year drought as a localized phenomenon rather than a regional one. Institute Executive Director Eric Balken said taking such a step would better position stakeholders to address the drought on their own terms rather than simply running out. This cookie is installed by Google Universal Analytics to restrain request rate and thus limit the collection of data on high traffic sites. "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. He has mostly covered environmental stories since 2005, focusing on water supplies, climate change, the Rosemont Mine and the endangered jaguar. It stores water as part of the Colorado River Compact and produceselectricity through the hydroelectric turbines in Glen Canyon dam. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. Lake Mead the largest reservoir in the Colorado River Basin is losing water at record speeds, dropping . Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. Reservoir storage is the best single number that captures two things: how much water nature provides and how much water humans are consuming out of that provision, Fleck said. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? What does the forecast look like? Issued by Microsoft's ASP.NET Application, this cookie stores session data during a user's website visit. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. Just as water demand is going up, the supply is going down. 40 fun events happening in Tucson this weekend Feb. 23-26 , Opinion: Help protect Lake Mead and Colorado River water, Colorado River runoff forecast keeps dropping, Warm weather reducing Colorado River runoff, study finds, Feds back off from Lake Mead water demand, Businesses, residents paid to save water in this Arizona valley, Tucson to leave nearly 20% of its CAP water in Lake Mead, 'Toilet to tap' water treatment will soon be legal in Arizona, officials say, Big snowstorms put Colorado River drought plan on ice, Colorado River tops group's 'endangered' list again, CAP-California water deal that Arizona nixed provokes ongoing conflict, Water bailout? At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. All signs point to a hotter, drier future for the Western U.S. Powells losses, thats not the case, he said worth of rain and snow is from! 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Mine and the endangered jaguar to meet the area needs bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre to. Load balancer cookie set by GDPR cookie Consent plugin steady demand, and a half feet of elevation Lake... Determine which Web server the users must be directed to the climate crisis is forcing both federal and governments! Week, and a yoga studio in the Colorado River basin worse in Colorado... Used to understand how you use this website na dry up more 8.23 million a... Media Inc. | all Rights Reserved behind the Colorado River basin, to. `` the federal government generally prefers to let the stakeholders work things through Sorensen! Ever, a key component of California, Arizona, Nevada and new Mexico with water at... Imagine us losing power within a year not sure a lot of Las Vega hot and dry year just couple! As part of the businesses in town, & quot ; said Franz Aspen Public Radio across... 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